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導(dǎo)讀：北京時間10月27日，英國《金融時報》在評論版頭條發(fā)出清華大學(xué)戰(zhàn)略與安全研究中心研究員、中國論壇特約專家周波的文章。針對日益加劇的歐洲核危機，周波認(rèn)為，中國可以發(fā)揮對俄獨特影響力，防止歐洲發(fā)生核沖突。他并提出中國促使俄與北約談判，化解核危機，重建歐洲安全秩序的具體建議。中國論壇翻譯此文，以饗讀者。

【文/觀察者網(wǎng)專欄作者 周波】

普京會對烏克蘭使用核武器嗎？這個至關(guān)重大的問題不僅與基輔和歐洲有關(guān)，也牽扯到中國。迄今，北京在其戰(zhàn)略伙伴俄羅斯和重要貿(mào)易伙伴烏克蘭之間精心維系著平衡。在9月的撒馬爾罕峰會期間，普京對中國在烏克蘭沖突中的“平衡立場”表示感謝。

但是，如果莫斯科決定對烏克蘭使用戰(zhàn)術(shù)核武器，中國將很難繼續(xù)保持現(xiàn)在的立場。在2013年12月北京與基輔的聯(lián)合聲明中，中國表示不會對烏克蘭使用或威脅使用核器，更為重要的是，在烏克蘭面臨來自第三方的此類威脅情況下，北京將提供安全保證。

因此，普京愈演愈烈的言辭無疑加重了北京的關(guān)切。他上月表態(tài)將準(zhǔn)備“不惜一切代價”捍衛(wèi)俄羅斯的“領(lǐng)土完整”。如果其軍隊在戰(zhàn)場上掙扎——烏克蘭軍隊正在收復(fù)哈爾科夫等地區(qū)，俄羅斯部署戰(zhàn)術(shù)核導(dǎo)彈的可能性就會增加。

中國迄今未向俄羅斯提供任何軍事援助。但鑒于北京對莫斯科的巨大影響，它可以在防止核沖突方面發(fā)揮自身的獨特優(yōu)勢。

首先，北京應(yīng)該告訴莫斯科遵守五個核大國于今年1月發(fā)表的聯(lián)合聲明：“核戰(zhàn)爭打不贏也打不得”。俄羅斯擁有世界上最大的核武庫，當(dāng)俄方威脅當(dāng)年選擇放棄核武器的烏克蘭時，它已玷污了自己的聲譽。如果普京坐實他對烏克蘭人的威脅，那就更加駭人聽聞。普京以前曾說過，烏克蘭人與俄羅斯人“實際上是同一民族”。

第二，北京應(yīng)該明確地告訴克里姆林宮，在戰(zhàn)場上使用核武器將置中國于非常困難的境地。半個多世紀(jì)以來，北京一直奉行“不首先使用”核武器的政策。雖然其他國防政策已經(jīng)調(diào)整，但這一點絲毫未變，中國以擁有最穩(wěn)定、最可持續(xù)和最可預(yù)測的核戰(zhàn)略而自豪。

北京現(xiàn)在最不想要的就是與歐洲各國關(guān)系惡化。在美國加緊與中國的競爭時，歐洲并非始終站在美國一邊，這很重要。普京已經(jīng)承認(rèn)，北京對俄烏戰(zhàn)爭有“疑問和擔(dān)憂”。如果他使用核武器，北京的反應(yīng)將遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超出疑問和擔(dān)憂。在全世界都對莫斯科表示抗議的情況下，中國是否還能保持中立？如果聯(lián)合國安理會投票譴責(zé)俄羅斯的行徑，北京還能棄權(quán)嗎？

最后，北京可以在俄羅斯和北約談判中發(fā)揮重要的調(diào)停作用。例如，北約可以承諾停止任何進一步的擴張，以換取莫斯科同意不使用核武器。這樣的妥協(xié)能讓雙方都保住面子。在1962年古巴導(dǎo)彈危機期間，美國總統(tǒng)肯尼迪和蘇聯(lián)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人赫魯曉夫達(dá)成了類似的協(xié)議：蘇聯(lián)將拆除其在古巴部署的彈道導(dǎo)彈以換取美國不再入侵古巴的承諾。私下里，美國還同意拆除所有部署在土耳其可能用于對付俄羅斯的中程彈道導(dǎo)彈。

鑒于莫斯科的首要關(guān)切是北約擴張，普京可能認(rèn)為這個選擇值得考慮。這個選擇也值得北約考慮。北約不顧克里姆林宮的警告執(zhí)意東擴，已經(jīng)將歐洲推向核沖突的邊緣。普京說得對，這是俄羅斯與西方之間的戰(zhàn)爭，而不是俄羅斯和烏克蘭之間的戰(zhàn)爭。出于誠意，北約可以表態(tài)承諾不首先對俄羅斯或在莫斯科的勢力范圍內(nèi)使用核武器。

在一部2018年的紀(jì)錄片中，普京問道：“沒有俄羅斯，要世界干什么？”回答應(yīng)該是，“如果沒有世界，俄羅斯又在哪里？”如果普京現(xiàn)在打開一個即使在冷戰(zhàn)時也一直關(guān)閉的核潘多拉魔盒，那堪稱愚蠢之極。中國可以幫助世界，只需告訴普京：“總統(tǒng)先生，不要使用核武器！”

翻譯：中國論壇 宋憶寧

核譯：許馨勻 韓樺

英文原文：

Zhou Bo: China can use its leverage with Russia to prevent a nuclear war

Will Putin use nuclear weapons in Ukraine? This billion-dollar question matters not only to Kyiv and Europe, but also to China. So far Beijing has trodden a careful line between Russia, its strategic partner, and Ukraine, which is a significant trading partner. During September’s Samarkand summit, Vladimir Putin thanked China for its “balanced position” on the Ukraine conflict.

But if Moscow decides to use tactical nuclear weapons against Ukraine, China can hardly maintain such a position anymore. A joint declaration between Beijing and Kyiv in December 2013 agreed that China will not use or threaten to use nuclear weapons against Ukraine and, more importantly, will provide security assurances in the event of any such threat by a third party.

Putin’s intensifying rhetoric is therefore raising the stakes for Beijing. He said last month he would be ready to defend the “territorial integrity” of Russia “by all means.” If his military is struggling on the battlefield — which it is in areas such as Kharkiv, where Ukrainian forces are retaking lost territory — then the likelihood of Russia deploying tactical nuclear missiles only increases.

China has so far refrained from providing any military assistance to Russia. But given Beijing’s huge influence on Moscow, it is uniquely positioned to do more to prevent a nuclear conflict.

First, Beijing should tell Moscow to honour the five nuclear powers’ joint statement in January that “nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought”. Russia has the largest nuclear arsenal in the world and threatening Ukraine — which chose to give up its nuclear weapons — has already tarnished its reputation. It would be all the more appalling if Putin followed through on his threat against Ukrainian citizens, who he had previously described as “practically one people” with Russians.

Second, Beijing should make clear to the Kremlin that using nuclear weapons on the battlefield would put China in a very difficult situation. Beijing has maintained a policy of “no first use” of nuclear weapons for more than half a century. While other defence policies have changed, this has held firm and China prides itself on having nuclear strategies which are the most stable, sustainable and predictable among nuclear powers.

The last thing Beijing wants now is a sour relationship with European capitals. At a time when the US is ramping up its competition with China, it is particularly important that Europe does not always take America’s side. Putin has admitted that Beijing had “questions and concerns” about Russia’s invasion — but if he uses nuclear weapons, then Beijing’s response will go far beyond questions and concerns. Could China remain neutral in the event of international protests against Moscow? And could Beijing abstain from a UN Security Council vote condemning Russia for its actions?

Finally, Beijing could play a significant role in brokering a deal between Russia and Nato. For example, Nato could promise to halt any further expansion in exchange for Moscow agreeing not to use nuclear weapons. Such a compromise would save face on both sides. During the 1962 Cuban missile crisis, US President John F. Kennedy and Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev reached a similar agreement: the Soviets would dismantle their ballistic missiles in Cuba in exchange for a US pledge not to invade Cuba again. Secretly, America also agreed to dismantle all of the Jupiter medium-range ballistic missiles which had been stationed in Turkey for possible use against Russia.

Since Moscow’s primary concern has been Nato expansion, Putin might find this option worth considering. It would be worth thinking about for Nato too. The alliance’s expansion in the face of the Kremlin’s warnings has helped push Europe to the brink of a nuclear conflict. Putin is right to conclude this is a war between Russia and the west rather than between Russia and Ukraine. As a goodwill gesture, Nato could pledge not to use nuclear weapons first against Russia or within Moscow’s sphere of influence.

In a 2018 documentary, Putin asked, “Why do we need a world without Russia in it?” The answer should be, “But where is Russia without the world?” If Putin now opens a nuclear Pandora’s box that was kept closed even during the cold war, it would be a moment of infinite stupidity. China can help the world by simply telling Putin: don’t use nuclear weapons, Mr President.

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