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　　US - This seems to be shaping up as a very traditional pricing year, as something always seems to short the pig supply in the 2nd quarter, writes Allan Bentley, Sales & Service.The semen extender issue that we have all heard about but not much has been reported on should at least be part of the issue at that time.I believe most of that extender was off the market by November 1, 2015. That math adds up to shorter numbers of pigs coming soon. We should see some $80 plus base bids. Watch the next few months and study the actual basis.If the basis is at zero, the futures are going to fight the move higher. If that happens, fine, then sell those cash hogs.I read that the net futures long positions are very high. Exports are very good and domestic pork consumption is also going to be higher than the past. This is shaping up to be a year for pork producers to make some money, using a combination of cash sales and hedging opportunities.

　　艾倫·本特利(Allan Bentley)寫道，由于第二季度生豬供應(yīng)宛然短缺，美國(guó)生豬市場(chǎng)看起來形成了傳統(tǒng)定價(jià)年。我們所聞到關(guān)于精液稀釋液的問題在那段光陰報(bào)道的不多，至少只透露了問題的一部分，我信服大部分的稀釋液在2015年11月1日已經(jīng)脫離市場(chǎng)，這使得即將上市的豬變少了。我們應(yīng)該能看到以80美元為基礎(chǔ)的定價(jià)，察看下幾個(gè)月的情況并根據(jù)實(shí)際情況進(jìn)行研究。要是定價(jià)基礎(chǔ)處于零點(diǎn)，期貨價(jià)格將會(huì)走高，然后賣豬兌現(xiàn)。我從數(shù)據(jù)中看到期貨的多頭倉(cāng)位較重。未來出口量應(yīng)該不錯(cuò)，國(guó)內(nèi)豬肉消費(fèi)水平也將比去年高，豬肉生產(chǎn)商在傳統(tǒng)定價(jià)年里可以通過現(xiàn)銷和對(duì)沖機(jī)會(huì)組合賺到錢。